Russia’s share of internationally traded energy is projected to decline more than 7% over the coming decade, thanks to economic shifts resulting from Russia’s war against Ukraine. In a recent report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that Russia’s war sparked a global energy crisis that will significantly reduce Russia’s own future energy exports.
“Russia has been by far the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels, but its invasion of Ukraine is prompting a wholesale reorientation of global energy trade, leaving it with a much-diminished position,” IEA says in an October 27 statement announcing the release of its report, World Energy Outlook 2022 (PDF, 13MB). “Russia’s share of internationally traded energy, which stood at close to 20% in 2021, falls to 13% in 2030,” the IEA statement adds.
In its 2022 outlook, IEA projects Russia’s oil production in 2025 will be 2 million barrels per day lower than in its 2021 outlook, issued prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That’s a 17% drop in projected production from 11.45 million barrels per day to 9.46 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, Russia’s projected natural gas production for 2025 is 23% lower in the IEA’s 2022 outlook than in its 2021 report, with projected production levels dropping 200 billion cubic meters, from 859 billion cubic meters to 656 billion cubic meters.
The IEA also estimates that by 2030, Russia’s share of internationally traded oil and gas will have fallen by half compared to 2021 levels. “Russian fossil fuel exports never return — in any of our scenarios — to the levels seen in 2021,” the report adds. While the IEA says Russia’s aggression harms its energy future, the report also says energy policies issued since Russia’s full-scale invasion are accelerating the global shift toward clean energy that was already underway.
Solar and wind capacity in the United States is projected to increase two and a half times by 2030, driven in part by the Inflation Reduction Act. Meanwhile, the European Union’s speeding deployment of renewable energy, in part to limit Russian energy imports, will decrease Europe’s demand for natural gas and oil by 20% over this decade and reduce demand for coal by one-half, the report says.
“Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, announcing the 2022 World Energy Outlook.